The US credit rating downgrade by Moody’s has reignited national conversations around debt, deficits, and fiscal policy. In this week’s market commentary, Chief Investment Officer Brad Barrie explains how the downgrade reflects broader concerns about the national debt and America’s overall fiscal trajectory. As Congress debates new budget proposals and potential extensions of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, investors are facing fresh uncertainties. Brad offers insights on how these developments may influence investment strategy and the importance of maintaining diversification during times of market volatility.
Debt, Deficits, and the Moody’s Downgrade
Hi. This is Brad Barrie, Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager with Dynamic Wealth Group. Welcome to this market and economic update
Downgrade Affect on the US Credit Rating
Moody’s, one of the three main credit rating agencies, recently downgraded the US credit rating, marking the official end to America’s top-tier credit status. This follows similar actions by Fitch in 2023 and Standard and Poor’s back in 2011. This decision reflects growing concerns about America’s fiscal trajectory as the national debt continues to expand. The timing is particularly notable as Congress debates the new budget bill that could potentially impact annual deficits, highlighting the tension between revenue constraints and government spending.
Over the next few minutes, we’ll discuss this fiscal uncertainty and what it could mean for investors.
Rising National Debt Compared to GDP
First, as this chart shows, the federal debt has been rising over the past decade relative to GDP. It’s relevant to compare debt with GDP, because what matters is whether the economy can support the current level of debt.
Throughout history, budget negotiations in Washington have created periods of market uncertainty. As citizens, it’s natural to be concerned about our nation’s fiscal path with growing deficits and limited solutions in sight. However, when it comes to your investment, perspective matters. Over the past 15 years, we’ve seen multiple fiscal standoffs create volatility, from the 2011 Standard and Poor’s downgrade to government shutdowns in 2018 and 2019. In each case, markets eventually stabilized and recovered.
Now, rather than react or trying to predict what the leaders in Washington will do, a much better approach is to follow a truly diversified investment philosophy. Being prepared for a range of outcomes is the best way to achieve financial goals and not simply relying on hope and optimism. Hoping things will work out is simply not a plan.
Tax Provisions and the Tax Cut and Jobs Act
Next, it is likely that key provisions of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act will be extended. With the tax bill currently working its way through Congress, the current proposal aims to provide economic stability by preventing a potential tax cliff where rates would suddenly revert to higher levels before this Act was enacted.
For individuals, the proposal would, among other things, make the 37% top tax rate permanent, increase the child tax credit to $2,500 through 2020 through 2028, and potentially raise the controversial SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $30,000. Businesses would benefit from an increased pass-through deduction, rising from 20% to 23%, reinstated the 100% bonus depreciation for qualified assets, and restored research and development tax deductions.
Please keep in mind that this is all subject to change as the bill makes its way through the House and then through the Senate.
Government Spending and Budget Deficits
Finally, this chart shows that despite efforts to control government spending, federal budget deficits continue to add to the national debt. The latest budget proposal includes approximately $1.6 trillion in spending cuts through changes to social programs. But these cuts could also be outweighed by tax reductions and increased spending elsewhere.
This comes as our current debt already exceeds $36 trillion, equivalent to approximately $106,000 for every American. While the downgraded US credit rating reflects the legitimate concerns about our long-term fiscal health, history suggests the most prudent approach for investors is to stay invested and maintain a disciplined, long-term, truly diversified financial strategy.
We Are Here To Help
I hope you found these, these high-level insights helpful. If you are a financial advisor and would like more information on the solutions we provide, including multi-dimensional asset allocation, please download our white paper titled Busting Seven Risk and Return Myths, or click on the link below, or visit our website at dynamicwg.com, or simply email us at info@dynamicwg.com.
If you are a financial advisor and would like more information on our multi-dimensional approach towards asset management, you can download our white paper titled Busting Seven Risk and Return Myths by visiting our website at DynamicWG.com, or email us at info@DynamicWG.com. If you are an individual investor, we are happy to address any questions you may have and put you in touch with a qualified advisor, if so desired.
Until next time, take care, everyone, and make smart, logical, and fact-based financial decisions.
Disclaimer:
Clearnomics and Dynamic Wealth Group, LLC are not affiliated entities. No part of this should be taken as investment advice. Consult your financial advisor for specific investment recommendations tailored to your specific situation.
Dynamic Wealth Group (“Dynamic”) is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of Dynamic by the SEC, nor does it indicate that Dynamic has attained a particular level of skill or ability. This material prepared by Dynamic is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Opinions expressed by Dynamic are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Dynamic, however, cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source.
Dynamic does not provide tax or legal advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as tax or legal advice.
Any reference to an index is included for illustrative purposes only, as an index is not a security in which an investment can be made. Indices are unmanaged vehicles that serve as market indicators and do not account for the deduction of management fees and/or transaction costs generally associated with investable products. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual returns may be lower.
< Commentary
Market Update: U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade
The US credit rating downgrade by Moody’s has reignited national conversations around debt, deficits, and fiscal policy. In this week’s market commentary, Chief Investment Officer Brad Barrie explains how the downgrade reflects broader concerns about the national debt and America’s overall fiscal trajectory. As Congress debates new budget proposals and potential extensions of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, investors are facing fresh uncertainties. Brad offers insights on how these developments may influence investment strategy and the importance of maintaining diversification during times of market volatility.
Debt, Deficits, and the Moody’s Downgrade
Hi. This is Brad Barrie, Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager with Dynamic Wealth Group. Welcome to this market and economic update
Downgrade Affect on the US Credit Rating
Moody’s, one of the three main credit rating agencies, recently downgraded the US credit rating, marking the official end to America’s top-tier credit status. This follows similar actions by Fitch in 2023 and Standard and Poor’s back in 2011. This decision reflects growing concerns about America’s fiscal trajectory as the national debt continues to expand. The timing is particularly notable as Congress debates the new budget bill that could potentially impact annual deficits, highlighting the tension between revenue constraints and government spending.
Over the next few minutes, we’ll discuss this fiscal uncertainty and what it could mean for investors.
Rising National Debt Compared to GDP
First, as this chart shows, the federal debt has been rising over the past decade relative to GDP. It’s relevant to compare debt with GDP, because what matters is whether the economy can support the current level of debt.
Throughout history, budget negotiations in Washington have created periods of market uncertainty. As citizens, it’s natural to be concerned about our nation’s fiscal path with growing deficits and limited solutions in sight. However, when it comes to your investment, perspective matters. Over the past 15 years, we’ve seen multiple fiscal standoffs create volatility, from the 2011 Standard and Poor’s downgrade to government shutdowns in 2018 and 2019. In each case, markets eventually stabilized and recovered.
Now, rather than react or trying to predict what the leaders in Washington will do, a much better approach is to follow a truly diversified investment philosophy. Being prepared for a range of outcomes is the best way to achieve financial goals and not simply relying on hope and optimism. Hoping things will work out is simply not a plan.
Tax Provisions and the Tax Cut and Jobs Act
Next, it is likely that key provisions of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act will be extended. With the tax bill currently working its way through Congress, the current proposal aims to provide economic stability by preventing a potential tax cliff where rates would suddenly revert to higher levels before this Act was enacted.
For individuals, the proposal would, among other things, make the 37% top tax rate permanent, increase the child tax credit to $2,500 through 2020 through 2028, and potentially raise the controversial SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $30,000. Businesses would benefit from an increased pass-through deduction, rising from 20% to 23%, reinstated the 100% bonus depreciation for qualified assets, and restored research and development tax deductions.
Please keep in mind that this is all subject to change as the bill makes its way through the House and then through the Senate.
Government Spending and Budget Deficits
Finally, this chart shows that despite efforts to control government spending, federal budget deficits continue to add to the national debt. The latest budget proposal includes approximately $1.6 trillion in spending cuts through changes to social programs. But these cuts could also be outweighed by tax reductions and increased spending elsewhere.
This comes as our current debt already exceeds $36 trillion, equivalent to approximately $106,000 for every American. While the downgraded US credit rating reflects the legitimate concerns about our long-term fiscal health, history suggests the most prudent approach for investors is to stay invested and maintain a disciplined, long-term, truly diversified financial strategy.
We Are Here To Help
I hope you found these, these high-level insights helpful. If you are a financial advisor and would like more information on the solutions we provide, including multi-dimensional asset allocation, please download our white paper titled Busting Seven Risk and Return Myths, or click on the link below, or visit our website at dynamicwg.com, or simply email us at info@dynamicwg.com.
If you are a financial advisor and would like more information on our multi-dimensional approach towards asset management, you can download our white paper titled Busting Seven Risk and Return Myths by visiting our website at DynamicWG.com, or email us at info@DynamicWG.com. If you are an individual investor, we are happy to address any questions you may have and put you in touch with a qualified advisor, if so desired.
Until next time, take care, everyone, and make smart, logical, and fact-based financial decisions.
Disclaimer: